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There would not be a major second wave of COVID after this festival season
Posted on: 28/Oct/2020 9:10:57 AM
Eminent virologist and former HOD virology department CMC Vellore, Dr. Jacob John was of the view that after the ensuing festival season major second wave of Covid-19 infections would be unlikely.
Information gathered is that we might get minor waves resulting in little more than 50,000 cases of Covid-19 infection per day all over India. Dr. Jacob John then shed light on how the real magnitude of the pandemic might never be known as contract tracing that was undertaken in the initial stages was given up for treating symptomatic cases and their contacts mainly family members.
It must be taken into note that when the number of symptomatic cases increased the emphasis shifted to treatment and not on contact tracing. He revealed that even while treating the family members of positive cases only those with Coronavirus symptoms were tested. The Coronavirus pandemic peaked in the third week of the month of September.
The actual symptomatic cases were arrived at by a base figure of 7milliontreated cases multiplied by 26. This was as per the calculation by ICMR second ser survey. Dr. Jacob John made it clear that while considering a larger population that might have remained asymptomatic then 7millin must be multiplied by 50 to get a figure that might be nearer to the reality.
It is now known that the fresh Coronavirus cases have been decreasing in Chennai and are below 3000 per day. Truth is that it is necessary to follow social distancing plus wear facemasks and wash hands regularly for the decreasing trend of the cases to continue.
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