15,800 people in India could lose their lives over the next six months due to the impact of a 'Super El Nino'

India could record around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 compared with a normal year, according to a new study by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute.

The study links the projected increase in heat-related deaths largely to the ongoing Super El Niño event. Researchers estimate that global land temperatures could be around 1.2°C above normal during the period, with a significant increase in extremely hot days.

The World Meteorological Organization has also said that El Niño is expected to strengthen further and persist through February 2027. The weather phenomenon can significantly affect global temperature and rainfall patterns and increase the risks of extreme heat, drought and floods.

India Among Countries Facing Higher Heat Risks

The Climate Impact Lab study estimates that India could see about 15,800 excess heat-related deaths during the six-month forecast period. The estimate includes uncertainty, with another report putting the figure at approximately 15,800 deaths.

The researchers estimate that around 7,400 of these additional deaths in India could occur between December 2026 and February 2027. The study also notes that heat-related mortality could continue to rise into India`s summer months beyond the current six-month forecast period.

Globally, the study projects around 239,000 additional deaths during the September 2026-February 2027 period, while its broader estimate for the current El Nino episode is about 451,000 excess heat-related deaths.

Heatwaves and Other Climate Risks

The researchers have highlighted the need for timely measures such as heat early-warning systems, cooling centres, hydration facilities, worker protections and stronger health outreach to reduce the potential impact.

El Nino does not affect every country or region in the same way. According to the WMO, its effects vary depending on location, season and other climate factors.