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NE monsoon to be delayed this year in TN


Posted on : 08/Oct/2020 9:37:04 AM

Normally, the south-east monsoon withdraws around 15th of October every year and north-east monsoon sets in around 20th October with deviation of 7 days. This year it might be different.

The news that has come out now is that back to back low pressure systems expected over Bay of Bengal could delay the withdrawal of the SE monsoon and push the NE monsoon onset to the October end or early November.

It has been pointed out by professor Sridhar Balasubramaniam, climate expert of IIT Bombay that the monsoon trough is still active over central India as a low pressure area expected to form on 9th October is likely to enter central India and move towards west coast. Point is that on 15th of October, another low pressure area from South China Sea is likely to move into the Bay of Bengal and could enter central India. The number of active NE monsoon days for TN and south India would be reduced by these low pressure systems.

On 9th October, there is likely for fresh low pressure over the north Andaman Sea and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal and this was as per the prediction made by the RMC. It was also mentioned that this new low pressure would strengthen into depression over the central Bay of Bengal. This would then move west northwest wards and cross north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha on the afternoon or evening of 11th October.

The prevailing La Nina conditions in the Pacific plus strong equatorial dynamics persisting in India that is not allowing the south west monsoon current or the axis to move down the south could lead to delay in the withdrawal of the monsoon.

It was later brought out by Mr. Puviarasan, director Area Cyclone Warning Centre, IMD, that indication of NE monsoon onset was persistent flow of NE winds. He added that currently there is a string flow of north-westerly or westerly winds. He was of the view that NE monsoon would definitely begin after 25th October. It must not be forgotten that in the year 2018 also there was a delay in the NE monsoon and it commenced in November.
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