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Above normal monsoon predicted
Posted on: 26/May/2016 1:01:16 PM
According to weathermen, this year’s monsoons are expected to be above normal. They say that it will be at 109 per cent of the long period average (LPA), almost reaching excess levels. Private forecaster Skymet had forecasted 105 percent of LPA on April 11.
According to a senior executive at Skymet,
India Meteorological Department, the country`s official monsoon forecaster, has predicted 106 per cent rains. The department is expected to issue an updated forecast in the first week of June. The last prediction was based on data from March. In our updated forecast, we have looked at data till the beginning of May and it`s showing more favourable conditions, particularly the increased possibility of La Nina forming later this year.
Normal monsoons are with an average of 887 mm across the country from June to September. If this is taken as 100 per cent, the normal monsoon range is 96 -104 per cent. Rains in the 104-110 per cent range is termed `above normal`, while those above 110 per cent is excess.
The experts have said that the monsoon may start off poorly. In June, the rainfall is expected to be 13 per cent below normal. However, the situation will improve in July when rains will be 8 per cent more than normal.
We expect the second half of the monsoon season to be better, with our models showing 13 per cent above normal rains in August and 23 per cent higher than normal in September, said the official.
An official statement from Skymet said, Based on the rain prediction, the total area under kharif food grains (is) expected to increase by 15-20 per cent over last year. The total foodgrain output in the kharif season could touch 129-130 million tonnes. The sown area under oilseeds - including soybean, groundnut, pulses (tur, moong and urad) - and rice was likely to increase.
