It is known that the month of November is normally the peak rainfall month for Chennai. In this month, usually there would be a cyclone in Chennai. Truth is that Chennai got through November without any cyclones. Information gathered is that this was just the 4th time in the last 10 years that there has been no cyclone in November. In the past, November in Chennai in the years 2012, 2014 and2021 did not have any cyclones.
The ocean conditions were not favourable for the formation of the system and then intensifying into a cyclone. This was as per some meteorologists. Some weather bloggers have stated that a weather system would form over the Bay of Bengal in the second week of December and it might intensify into a cyclone.
Sea surface temperatures below the threshold value below the cyclogenesis or development and intensifying of cyclone.This was mentioned as the main reason for the absence of cyclones in November.
Between 8th and 9th December, a system would likely form and this was as per Mr. P. Senthamarai Kannan, director, IMD, Chennai. He spoke about how the same type of conditions cannot be expected every November in Chennai. He later threw light on the cyclone Vardha that hit the city in December a few years back. A forecast was issued that this season would end with close to normal rainfall.
It was explained by Mr. Pradeep John, weather blogger, that the system that would form in December might become a cyclone. He added that chances of the system weakening were also there.