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Consistent downward trend in COVID cases from February onwards.


Posted on : 19/Oct/2020 9:46:22 AM

On 17th September, the number of symptomatic active Coronavirus cases peaked in India and there were around 10lakh cases. This has been brought to light by a government expert committee report.

 By the end of the month of February 2021, the cumulative total cases might touch 1.06crores with negligible growth. This would signal a consistent downturn. This was according to a panel of scientists belonging to IITs, IISC Bengaluru, ISI Kolkata, and CMC Vellore.
Prevalence of antibodies:

In the end of August month, just 14percent of Indias population had antibodies in them and now 30 percent has got antibodies in them. This was found out by the committee. It must be recalled that ICMR sero survey had revealed that 7percent of antibodies prevalence in August. Truth is that the effectiveness of the committee findings could depend on accuracy of the 2 estimates.

As per the professor Mr. Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad, the number being at 30% of total population was good and it showed the downturn of Covid-19 pandemic. He added that the cumulative mortality was projected to be less than 0.04% of the total infected.

 It is important to follow the protective measures and the downward trend would only continue if the protective measures were followed. The important piece of information was that in India there would have been 15times higher peak in the mid June month itself in the absence of lockdown and it would have been very tough to cope up.

The superb piece of information is that the Corvid-19 pandemic could be brought under the control by early next year with minimal active symptomatic infections in February 2021.

 The report that was released by the committee was based on the mathematics model. It was mentioned that the projections wouldnt hold and the numbers would start increasing if wearing facemasks plus disinfecting, tracing and quarantine were not followed.

The report highlighted the fact that Covid-19 curve would be based on these above said factors and also on the states testing and implementing of containment protocols. Till now, in India there have been around 75 lakhs Coronavirus cases reported and there would be an addition of around 26 lakhs cases. 

Important fact is that the current Coronavirus cases add up to 7.8lakhs and it is well below 9 to 10 lakhs cases that were reported in the middle of September 2020. It must be taken into account that India`s positivity rate is 7.95percent.
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