Low shear on its path and with ideal SST, Severe Cyclone Gaja is not expected to Weaken and instead going to cross between Cuddalore and Vedaranayam as a strong Cyclone with winds clocking 100-120 km/hr around late / mid night today.
This is now comparable to Vardah. The areas of Nagapattinam, Tiruvaruar, Thanjavur, Pudukottai, Sivangaga, Dindigul, Theni and Madurai are the critical districts to be in alert in particular Tiruvarur and also to an extent nearby district of Nagapattinam, Thanjavur and Pudukottai. Thriuvarur will see very high winds of around 100-120 km/hr at the time of landfall.
Cyclone Gaja has been exhibiting tight wrapping of bands and now it is not expected to weaken before landfall as expected earlier instead will make landfall as a Severe Cyclone. Its located at 150-175 kms away from the Tamil Nadu coast, assuming it is coming at speed of 25-30 km/hr. It will take around 6 hours. Hence, Cyclone Gaja crossing the coast is likely around late night /mid-night today and the process might extend into early hours of 16th November.
How to know it is safe to come out
The landfall might happen around midnight and might take three to 4 hours for the process to complete. First Tiruvarur district might see winds from North West / East direction and then after the eye moves in we can see winds from opposite direction ie South East Direction. In the middle period of wind change, there will be calmness so dont assume Cyclone has crossed. One can watch the way trees swings and take a decision based on complete stopping of winds from South East direction.
Extreme Rains - Red Alert
Lets see the past 25 Cyclones crossing the Cuddalore and Delta Belt during NEM and its rainfall in 24 hrs
2011 - Cyclone Thane - Cuddalore reported 140 km/hr
2008 - Cyclone Nisha - Karaikkal reported 65 km/hr winds and Orathanadu in Thanjavur recorded 657 mm rainfall in 24hrs
2000 - Cuddalore Cyclone - Thozhudur 454 mm rainfall and Cuddalore reported 120 km/hr winds
1993 - Karaikkal Cyclone - Karaikkal reported 167 km/hr
1991 - Karaikkal Cyclone - Karaiikal Cyclone 120 km/hr winds
As you can see, Cyclones dump huge rainfall when eer i has made landfall around delta belt.
Nagapattinam, Tiruvaruar, Thanjavur, Pudukottai, Sivangaga, Dindigul, Theni and Madurai will have chance of extreme heavy rains.
Heavy rains are possible in parts of Ramanathapuram, Trichy, Cuddalore, Virudhungar and ghat areas of Coimbatore around Valparai also needs to be in vigil.
Courtesy - Tamil Nadu Weatherman